USMLE readiness predictor
Your chance of passing, from the practice tests you have taken. Built on NBME's own outcome data, and honest about what it means for international graduates.
About you
Your practice tests
Oldest first. The arrows fix the order.
Your readiness report appears here
Enter at least one NBME result. Free 120 and UWSA are used to cross-check it.
How this works
We start where NBME does. Every NBME self-assessment report prints a chance of passing, from a model NBME fits each year on students who sat Step 1 within a week of the form. We read that curve at your latest fresh NBME: a single fresh 70% comes out at about 98%.
Then we adjust for what NBME's own outcome data show makes that number too optimistic. Students who took many forms and climbed steeply passed less often than their last score suggested, so a climb of more than 9 points is marked down. Scores taken weeks before the exam predict less well, so a longer gap lowers the chance. Repeated, offline and untimed forms are left out, because they score high.
NBME's model was built on US and Canadian students. No study has checked it for international graduates, so for them we take 1.5 points off and never show more than 97%. Forms are adjusted slightly where students' own paired scores show they run easy (NBME 31 by 1 point, NBME 34 by 2). Free 120 and UWSA are converted to NBME's scale and used only as a cross-check: if one sits 8 or more points below your NBME, we lower your band.
Sources: NBME self-assessment score reports and guidance; NBME's CCSSA pass-probability table (July 2025); Fan et al., Medical Science Educator (2025), 23,271 students; USMLE Score Interpretation Guidelines (2026); Morrison et al., Medical Science Educator (2020). Your tests are saved on this device only.